13 July 2023 - Thoughts on the Market

In my last write-up, on June 12, 2023, I cautioned my readers not to be fooled by the yen weakness that was dominating the foreign exchange market as the dollar would not be able to sustain a move above 143.00 yen per dollar. I was sure the yen weakness would prove to be fleeting, and I noted that once the dollar’s down move starts in earnest, we need to “look out below.”

Well, the reversal in dollar yen from the recent highs (it just touched 145.00) has been fierce. And now, it's time to look out below as it looks like it might carry on.

On July 5, the dollar was trading just below 145.00 yen per dollar. In the last six trading days, it has plummeted to 138.00, wiping out over two months of hard-fought dollar gains. Is this the start of the mega move that I have forecasted? It is still very early in the move, and there will be periodic violent corrections, but the recent action feels like it is the start of something very big.