Actionable analysis from one of the most legendary traders in history.
Thoughts on the Market April 13, 2026 Overview & Current Positioning Last week I wrote about the resilience of the U.S. stock market, and how I was taking advantage of the market's short-term recovery to begin rebuilding some of my limited-risk, bearish market exposure. My assessment was
Thoughts on the Market April 6, 2026 Scenarios, Global Consequences, and a Darker Strategic Calculus I. Positioning & Market Context Last week I wrote about taking some profits on my short stock market positions, as I was sure we were due for a period of corrective consolidation. The market responded
Thoughts on the Market March 30, 2026 Friday's breakdown below S&P 500 6500 confirmed the corrective thesis we have held since late October. Markets remain deeply overvalued, the Fed has failed its price-stability mandate, and we are likely in the early stages of a far larger
Thoughts on the Market March 24, 2026 On February 28, 2026, following orders from President Trump, the U.S. initiated attacks on Iran in a military operation labeled Epic Fury. The U.S., alongside Israeli partners, conducted massive airstrikes on various Iranian military and nuclear-related infrastructure. The stated objectives of
Thoughts on the Market March 16, 2026 1. Executive Summary The U.S. stock market has entered a phase of structural fragility. Friday’s close directly on the 200‑day moving average signals a loss of trend integrity and a deterioration in internal bid strength. Implied volatility has surged to
