The price patterns are shockingly similar. Clearly, we have some massive speculative forces ruling the markets right now.
This is a short update as I wanted to explain a bit more about my trend following strategy.
The market is now nearly ready to return to some sense of rationality. It will be ugly, but sadly, it is inevitable.
Some of the current valuations also remind me of the dot-com bubble in 2000. Markets always seek balance, so parabolic rises are nearly always reversed quite dramatically.
The last time we had a divergence this pronounced was in 2000, right before the Nasdaq dropped 83% from its highs.
Today is a bit unusual since it has been one of the few days this year when the New York market has actually been pushing dollar yen lower.
In my last write-up, I wrote that I expected the dollar to likely come under a renewed attack once the recent corrective cycle was complete. My hunch is that the renewed attack is very imminent. I have sold dollar Swiss and dollar yen today, and I also sold a basket
It has been an interesting start to the year, with lots of seemingly stochastic price action in multiple markets. Let’s try to make sense of what has occurred so far, and let’s try to figure out where we are heading from here. I have always felt that it
In my last several write-ups, I discussed my view that dollar yen had finally started its long-awaited powerful reversal from its multi-year highs around 151.90. In almost textbook fashion, the dollar staged a sharp, but brief, reversal from 141.50 back to 145.00, before then resuming its downtrend.
Up the Stairs, Down the Elevator – The Reversal in Dollar Yen Has Started This has been a strange year in the markets, with many securities, currencies, and commodities having been driven way beyond rational valuation levels due to the building up of massive speculative exposures. Eventually these distortions will get