THE IRAN DELAY STRATEGY: A Scenario Analysis of Maximum Geopolitical Pain

How Tehran’s Negotiating Timeline, Fertilizer Inflation, Rising Rates, and a Stock Market at Historic Valuation Extremes Could Combine to Reshape U.S. Politics and Markets

Thoughts on the Market by Andy Krieger, June 1, 2026

As the Iran War continues to unfold as an epic failure, I want to lay out a scenario that I hope does not play out.  Just as I laid out the scenario nearly a year ago of a desperate Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and forecasted in some detail what the ramifications of this closure would be, my new scenario is actually more frightening. No matter what happens with the negotiations between Iran and the U.S. over the coming weeks and months, I am afraid that many of the developments discussed in this report are still likely to occur. We can look at this report as a roadmap of a worst-case scenario, but the best case is not likely to be so terrific.  I apologize in advance for the length of this report, but I believe that it is essential reading in order to make sense of the many disparate forces now at work in the global macro economy.