American Patience Is Wearing Thin: Diesel, the War in Iran, and the Economic Pain Reshaping US Politics

Thoughts on the Market, by Andy Krieger

September 28, 2026

For many months I have written about the Iranian strategy in its war with the U.S. Iran cannot defeat the United States on the battlefield, and its leaders have never pretended otherwise. Their strategy has been something different: make the war more expensive for Americans than it is to them, and bet that an authoritarian government can endure economic pain longer than a democracy facing an election. For most of this conflict, that looked like a long shot. But now, at the end of September 2026, it is slowly starting to work. Diesel fuel is at an all-time nominal high, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since 2023,