Bessent's Forecasts: Many Misses, A Couple of Hits, and Lots of Negative Consequences

Thoughts on the Market by Andy Krieger

Oct 5, 2026 

Most of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's public economic forecasts over his 20 months in office have missed badly, and the cost is taking quite a toll on his credibility – and the credibility of his office. Among his big misses: a quick housing thaw, a fast return to 2% inflation, $3 gasoline, and faster growth. None of this has arrived. In fact, the markets have gone sharply against Bessent’s predictions in every instance.  His failed attempts over the summer to steady the yen and cap Treasury yields also faded within weeks.