Do We Need a Crystal Ball to Make Money Trading?

Thoughts on the Market
November 2, 2025

This week I am starting with a retrospective in order to explain better some of the logic and analysis that goes into my work.  Over time, I plan to introduce some simple, specific trading strategies that we use on a regular basis.  They are not particularly exciting, but if used properly, they can generate a steady stream of returns which can then be further turbo-charged using other sorts of trading strategies.  I will still address some of the major macro themes that drive our more directional plays, but I also want to share some of the other sorts of trading ideas that you might find helpful.

My professional journey began with the ambition to become a professor of Sanskrit and Indian philosophy. I was deeply passionate about research, and thanks to generous grants, my entire education was fully funded. I envisioned a life much like my advisor’s -- teaching, writing, and immersing myself in ancient texts. Though I had dabbled in professional tennis, the constant travel wore me down, and academia felt like the right path.

That dream, however, unraveled abruptly. After completing my PhD coursework and translating an obscure 8th-century Sanskrit treatise on karma and rebirth, I began preparing my thesis. That’s when my advisor sat me down and delivered a sobering truth: I was a strong candidate, but the only way I’d secure a professorship was if someone in the field passed away. I thought he was joking. He wasn’t.