Thoughts on the Market

April 13, 2026

Overview & Current Positioning

Last week I wrote about the resilience of the U.S. stock market, and how I was taking advantage of the market's short-term recovery to begin rebuilding some of my limited-risk, bearish market exposure. My assessment was that the market was too sanguine about a broad array of serious risks, not merely the headline uncertainty stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran. The working hypothesis remains unchanged: