Forming and Refining Trade Ideas – Revisiting the Aussie Kiwi Trade

Thoughts on the Market by Andy Krieger

July 20, 2026

On May 28, 2026, about six weeks ago, I sent out a special report recommending a short position in the Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar.  The currency pair was trading at 1.2080 that day, having reversed from its multi-year high at 1.2285, which was established two days before I sent out the report.  Because it will provide a deeper insight into the sort of thought process that goes into my trades, today’s newsletter revisits this idea and explores this trade recommendation in some depth.  Please understand that I have neither a magic formula that I apply in my trading, nor a “one size fits all” strategy that goes into my ideas. Instead, each idea is predicated on a number of basic principles. 

Let’s dig in.