Interim Report: Idea Update

Thoughts on the Market

November 18, 2025

As my readers know, I have become increasingly negative on the stock market over the past few weeks.  In a recent write-up (November 2, 2025, “Do We Need a Crystal Ball to Make Money Trading?”), I wrote about a butterfly trade in S&P500 futures options which I had just put on.  The trade had a maturity date of December 19, 2025, and it involved the purchase of one 6600 put, the sale of two 6500 puts, and the purchase of one 6400 put.  The total cost of this butterfly spread was $3.35.  This morning, the mid-market price for this spread was $8.30.  In case you put on the same or similar trade, I want to let you know that I have taken a profit on the position.  Although I am still quite negative on the market overall, I am not averse to taking a profit when the position increases by nearly 250% in fifteen days.   Also, in case the market continues to break lower with a lot of momentum, there are other strategies which will outperform the butterfly. 

As you can see in the chart below, the market’s decline has really started to accelerate recently. 

In my future write-ups, I will start sharing more ideas about trades that I am putting on myself, but please know that these ideas are not specific trade recommendations for you to execute.  Rather, I am just sharing some of the things that I am doing. 

Meanwhile, I want to wish you all the best of luck with your trading.

Andy Krieger