Investor Report: Global Market Outlook Amid the Reshaping of U.S. Foreign Policy

January 11, 2026

Thoughts on the Market

The global macro landscape has entered a period of profound structural disruption. Over the past year, the United States—under the direction of President Trump and guided heavily by the worldview of senior advisor Stephen Miller—has abandoned the post‑World War II framework of alliances, norms, and multilateral institutions. In its place, the administration has embraced an explicitly power‑centric doctrine: global affairs are governed by strength, force, and unilateral action.

The U.S. military operation in Venezuela, culminating in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and the establishment of de facto American trusteeship over the world’s largest oil reserves, marks a decisive break with 80 years of U.S. foreign policy. This shift carries far‑reaching implications for commodities, currencies, sovereign credit, global equities, and the long‑term architecture of international trade and finance.

We received initial warnings about this dramatic shift when Trump implemented the most severe global tariffs in nearly 100 years on U.S. allies and foes alike, but the recent moves remove any doubts about his true intentions.  Investors must prepare for a multi‑year period of elevated geopolitical volatility, sanctions‑driven fragmentation, and shifting commodity flows – alongside selective opportunities in energy, defense, and distressed sovereign debt.

The World Has Changed -- And Markets Are Only Beginning to Price It In