Thoughts on the Market by Andy Krieger

July 13, 2026

I. The Unraveling of the U.S.–Iran MOU

It should come as no surprise to my readers that the hastily executed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran is unraveling quickly. Aside from being drafted in a remarkably vague manner — with nearly all salient terms left open for debate — I have long maintained that Iran harbors a deeper agenda: inflicting maximum pain on President Trump and the United States. This conflict stands as a textbook case of how a militarily dominant force can be thwarted – even defeated – by an overwhelmed adversary wielding the right strategy.

As a result of this development, the markets have reacted violently, and there are some very important trading lessons to be learned from this entire episode.