Mid-Year Markets Review: Charting a Course for the Months Ahead

Over the past ten days, market activity has been extremely steady. In equities, the Dow continues to hover near its record highs, yet it hasn’t surpassed the peak set last December. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been climbing steadily, marking a string of new all-time highs -- but with noticeably subdued momentum.

In the forex arena, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure, surprisingly indifferent to conventional risk-off signals that typically drive investors toward its relative safety. This persistent disregard for negative headlines—many of which would historically trigger a surge in dollar demand – is particularly striking. In fact, the weighted dollar index is off to one of its worst starts in decades, having dropped more than 11% since the early weeks of January.

At the same time, gold has surged over 28% year-to-date, with the upward trend showing no signs of slowing as it continues to hit fresh record highs.

These developments point to a deeper narrative unfolding beneath the surface. With the first half of the year now behind us, this seems an opportune moment to pause, take a broader view, and reflect on what these signals might be telling us—so we can begin charting a course for the months ahead.