My Macro Views for the Start of 2025

In the words of Mark Twain, "The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why." 

This is my final write-up of 2024.  I will start with a brief discussion of gold, and then shift to a more general assessment of where the markets are heading.  To a large extent, my analysis of the gold market and my broader macro views are intertwined and connected.  Let’s dive in. 

Several months ago, on October 25, I recommended that my readers take profits on at least a portion of their long gold positions.  Gold had rallied all the way to $2790, having climbed over 40% since the middle of February, and I felt that the market was way over-done in the short term and desperately in need of a period of corrective price action.  My longer-term view was bullish, but I was quite sure that the markets needed some time to digest such a large move.