Is the Market’s Optimism Premature?
We need to see what policies finally emerge on April 2nd, the so-called Independence Day.
Latest
The High Cost of the U.S. Kicking the Can Down the Road
My long-term view of the dollar has been quite negative for a while, but the recent political shifts have accelerated it
Chaotic Market Conditions and Worsening Prospects
The US economy has displayed ever-increasing signs of weakness and vulnerability.
A Week of Turmoil and Opportunity
It has certainly been an action-packed week.
Are We Repeating History?
There has been a remarkable shift in global dynamics, and it raises a host of questions
A Closer Look at Stocks
The recent rally has been remarkable as market participants shrugged off disconcerting, disappointing economic data
What's Next for U.S. Stocks?
The US is clearly the global economic star right now, and it seems that everyone wants to participate in the action
The Far-Reaching Effects of Trump's Tariffs
Is implementing tariffs like this really the right solution to a thorny problem?
Conflicts on the Horizon
Trump is quickly assessing the limits of his power with Congress, testing America’s allies to see how far he can push them, and even pushing geographical boundaries
Trump 2.0: Markets, Policies, and the Road Ahead
Whatever you might think about President-elect Trump and his policies, there is no doubt that his second round as President will be highly consequential
Preparing for What’s Next in the Markets
This year will be marked by periods of extreme volatility in many markets.
My Macro Views for the Start of 2025
I will start with a brief discussion of gold, and then shift to a more general assessment of where the markets are heading
The Risks the US Economy Is Facing in 2025
There have been many seemingly contradictory developments that will likely lead to wild market gyrations.
The Currency Moves I’m Paying Close Attention To
We now have extreme divergences in economic performance among the various major economies