Powell Is the Master of Clever – but Deceptive -- “Fedspeak”

Thoughts on the Market

December 15, 2025

Jerome Powell is a very clever man who has mastered the art of “Fed-speak” – using statistically accurate information to completely mislead and deceive his audience.  Powell’s “one‑time effect” line is a statistical sleight of hand that is technically true for the rate of inflation, but irrelevant for the lived reality of higher prices. Tariffs don’t roll back; they reset the baseline. That reset feeds into wages, contracts, and expectations, making inflation stickier than the Fed’s framing suggests.

It’s fair to say the Fed often frames inflation dynamics in ways that emphasize transience or manage expectations, but whether that’s “intentionally misleading” depends on perspective.  My view is admittedly more cynical, but it is based on my close observations of the Federal Reserve Board’s market operations for more than forty years.  Let me summarize Fed policy in four simple words: “When in doubt, ease!”