Special Report Part 2: S&P 500 Analysis, by Imre Gams
Imre’s Deep Dive into the S&P500 E-mini Futures (ES)
Please find below Imre’s technical analysis of the S&P500. In light of the heightened geopolitical tension and accompanying market volatility, Imre has done a deep dive into the market and broken down how he sees things developing. I am sure you will find his analysis very insightful and very helpful. I have often noted that although history may not repeat, it often rhymes – and the S&P500 market action is certainly rhyming with prior periods.
***********************
ES has been trading in a balanced structure since October 2025.
This structure spans over 400 points from its upper limit of 6983 to its lower boundary of 6584.
While it’s certainly a wide range, in percentage terms the span is just under 6%.
This means that so far, this range can be considered a market correction through time rather than price.
Time-based corrections are just as nasty as its cousin – the sharp market decline.
When the market sell-off suddenly accelerates, you can feel the shift in your gut and deep in your bones.
That feeling of uneasiness, that maybe the world as you knew it could change forever…
Guess what? You’re not alone.
And when that feeling becomes overwhelming, you see things start to break.
Investors and traders rush for the exits, desperate to get out of their positions. Previous market darlings are suddenly in deep correction or bear market territory.
But a slow grind within a wide range? That's a different kind of pain.
No dramatic crash. No obvious moment to act. Just months of going nowhere while your capital sits tied up and your conviction slowly erodes.
That's what this market has been doing since October…
But there’s no guarantee that this current market regime will end up resolving as a simple and clean sideways range.
There is something interesting, however, about the last two sharper corrections we’ve seen, which took place in 2022 and 2025.
Neither of them started off as outright panic-driven sales.
In fact… they both started off as seemingly benign sideways ranges.
In the case of the 2022 sell-off, the market traded in a range between September 2021 and March 2022.
Finally, the dam broke and a sharper correction ensued.
It was a similar story in 2025. After a very bullish October 2024, the market traded sideways until the end of February 2025. In March, the market sold off hard.
And although the 2025 sell-off looks visually sharper, it ended up correcting the market by just over 21%.
Whereas the 2022 sell-off was good for over 27%.
The purpose of this analysis is not to try and make a prediction for what the market will or will not do over the next several months.
The purpose of technical analysis is to construct potential scenarios based on historical patterns. And to then prepare the allocation of risk capital depending on which scenarios are triggered.
And that brings us to the present. As of writing (Monday, March 9, 14:40) ES is currently trading at 6727.
A combination of the low of the range at 6584 and the 200-day moving average has seen a significant buying response.
For now, the market is back within familiar territory. It won’t stay here forever.
Eventually, this range will resolve. A strong market must be able to sustain trade above the upper limit of the range. Ideally, buyers will be able to force sellers into accepting fair value at or above 7000.
In this scenario, patience will indeed be a virtue. As tempting as it may be to chase a breakout on a pop above 7000,
A weak market on the other hand, would see this time-based correction evolve into a sharper sell-off.
Accepting value below 6584 would put the previous consolidation highs around 6165 into focus. This would be the first major objective for sellers.
Below 6584, the technical picture gets admittedly quite muddy.
The most significant structure below this level is the zone spanning 5540 to 5193. Trading towards this zone would put the market into technical bear market territory.
The market is at a decision point. Not the kind that announces itself with a headline or a Fed statement. The quiet kind. The kind most people miss until it's too late.
Right now, buyers are holding the line. The 6584 low and the 200-day moving average did their job. Price bounced. That's a fact.
But facts change.
If buyers are serious, they need to push this market back above 7000 and make it stick. Not a quick pop and fade. Sustained trade above that level. Sellers forced to cover. New money coming in. That's what a healthy resolution looks like.
If they can't do that, the slow grind turns into something uglier. The same pattern that set up the 2022 and 2025 declines is sitting right in front of us. Sideways range. Failed breakout. Distribution. Then the floor drops out.
Imre Gams
*********************
As you can see from Imre’s report, the stock market is at a critical juncture. Whether you read through my macro analysis or Imre’s technical analysis, the market is nearing a decision point. Recent history would suggest that we break lower, regardless of Trump’s latest decisions and pronouncements about the Iran war. At the same time, however, we haven’t clearly broken lower yet, so the jury is still out. As noted, there are more than enough reasons for stocks to break down hard, but they are tenaciously trying to hold on. Let’s see how they fair over the coming weeks.
In the meanwhile, I want to wish you the best of luck with your trading.
Andy Krieger