The Administration Wants Lower Bond Yields – Will They Get Them?

Thoughts On The Market

December 8, 2025
By Andy Krieger

Topline Summary

The U.S. enters late 2025 amid a confluence of rising long-term yields, a weakening dollar, deteriorating labor conditions, and aggressive political pressure on the Federal Reserve. Despite five rate cuts since September 2024, 10-year Treasury yields have risen from 3.6% to roughly 4.2%.  This rise represents a highly unusual divergence in historical context.

Today’s Thoughts On The Market examines:

• The growing vulnerability of the U.S. dollar and the global capital flows that could accelerate its decline.
• Structural risks embedded in U.S. fiscal and monetary policies.
• The administration’s push for lower yields, and why the market may not cooperate.
• A thought experiment illustrating how fragile U.S. growth would be without the massive post-2008 debt accumulation.

Evidence suggests the U.S. is entering a critical period in which political pressures, unsustainable fiscal practices, and lingering inflation collide with skeptical bond markets. The risks of a sharp repricing in both the dollar and U.S. assets are rising – not falling.