Thoughts On The Market

April 19, 2026  —  For Qualified Subscribers

I.  Our Current Positioning

In the two weeks prior to the U.S. military strike on Iran, we warned subscribers that the bull market was in serious jeopardy. The technical deterioration was evident, the macro headwinds were intensifying, and the geopolitical kindling was unmistakably dry. When the strike came and the resulting sell-off accelerated through March, we covered our short positions into the volatility, locking in gains as the market priced in the immediate shock.

We have since been methodically reestablishing short exposure. The reasoning is straightforward: