There’s A Convergence of Early Warning Signals: Time To Be Extra Careful

Thoughts On the Market, by Andy Krieger

August 2, 2026

Last week was one-for-the-books on many levels.  It is rare to have multiple significant geopolitical and macroeconomic events all occurring at once, but last week was absolutely action-packed with major developments.  The new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, gave a memorable press conference after the Fed voted  – with three notable dissents – to leave rates unchanged.  I have watched press conferences from the Fed since the 1980’s, but I have never seen anything remotely similar to this one.  The markets certainly agreed with my observations, and they left no doubt how they are viewing Warsh’s performance.  We were also treated to a rare occurrence when for the first time in nearly thirty years the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed (acting on behalf of the Treasury) coordinated intervention in the forex markets to try to prop up an ailing yen.