Is the Market Ready to Return to Some Sense of Rationality? The market is now nearly ready to return to some sense of rationality. It will be ugly, but sadly, it is inevitable.
Does This Pattern Suggest a Sharp Correction in Stocks? Some of the current valuations also remind me of the dot-com bubble in 2000. Markets always seek balance, so parabolic rises are nearly always reversed quite dramatically.
These Huge Market Distortions Indicate Vulnerabilities (and Opportunities) The last time we had a divergence this pronounced was in 2000, right before the Nasdaq dropped 83% from its highs.
29 January 2024 - Thoughts on the Market Today is a bit unusual since it has been one of the few days this year when the New York market has actually been pushing dollar yen lower.
24 January 2024 - Thoughts on the Market In my last write-up, I wrote that I expected the dollar to likely come under a renewed attack once the recent corrective cycle was complete. My hunch is that the renewed attack is very imminent. I have sold dollar Swiss and dollar yen today, and I also sold a basket
15 January 2024 - Thoughts on the Market It has been an interesting start to the year, with lots of seemingly stochastic price action in multiple markets. Let’s try to make sense of what has occurred so far, and let’s try to figure out where we are heading from here. I have always felt that it
2 January 2024 - Thoughts on the Market In my last several write-ups, I discussed my view that dollar yen had finally started its long-awaited powerful reversal from its multi-year highs around 151.90. In almost textbook fashion, the dollar staged a sharp, but brief, reversal from 141.50 back to 145.00, before then resuming its downtrend.