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It has been an interesting start to the year, with lots of seemingly stochastic price action in multiple markets. Let’s try to make sense of what has occurred so far, and let’s try to figure out where we are heading from here. I have always felt that it

In my last several write-ups, I discussed my view that dollar yen had finally started its long-awaited powerful reversal from its multi-year highs around 151.90. In almost textbook fashion, the dollar staged a sharp, but brief, reversal from 141.50 back to 145.00, before then resuming its downtrend.

Up the Stairs, Down the Elevator – The Reversal in Dollar Yen Has Started This has been a strange year in the markets, with many securities, currencies, and commodities having been driven way beyond rational valuation levels due to the building up of massive speculative exposures. Eventually these distortions will get

Here is another brief update before a longer write-up in several weeks. In my analysis of November 19, 2023, I had written that we were likely in the early stages of a major, new rally in gold. The recent price action confirms this view, with gold having exploded higher from

In the past month, we have seen quite a number of interesting moves in the markets. The moves have been powerful and spread across many different asset classes. I think it is a good time to assess where we are, where we have come from, and where we are likely

Today’s write-up will be a brief update on some recent market developments. My next write-up will address a variety of market developments in greater detail. First, I want to touch on gold. In my “Thoughts on the Market” of April 27, 2023, I wrote that gold was getting ready

In my August update, I outlined a broad macroeconomic forecast which, for the most part, I still like. First and foremost, I warned of a sharp spike higher in the 30-year US treasury interest rates. This is playing out pretty much as expected. Rates have shot up from 4.16%