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In the past month, we have seen quite a number of interesting moves in the markets. The moves have been powerful and spread across many different asset classes. I think it is a good time to assess where we are, where we have come from, and where we are likely

Today’s write-up will be a brief update on some recent market developments. My next write-up will address a variety of market developments in greater detail. First, I want to touch on gold. In my “Thoughts on the Market” of April 27, 2023, I wrote that gold was getting ready

In my August update, I outlined a broad macroeconomic forecast which, for the most part, I still like. First and foremost, I warned of a sharp spike higher in the 30-year US treasury interest rates. This is playing out pretty much as expected. Rates have shot up from 4.16%

The past few years have given us a fascinating lesson in just how wrong the “experts” can be when it comes to forecasting. The remarkable call from Jerome Powell that inflation in 2021 would be “transitory” was just one of many noteworthy misses. Last year, almost every Wall Street analyst

In my last write-up, on June 12, 2023, I cautioned my readers not to be fooled by the yen weakness that was dominating the foreign exchange market as the dollar would not be able to sustain a move above 143.00 yen per dollar. I was sure the yen weakness

The markets have shifted into a strange, almost eerie compression since my last write-up. Volatility levels in multiple markets continue to drop to multi-year lows. In my nearly forty years of trading experience, I've seen this as always a warning signal of violent fireworks to follow. This compression

The past month has overall been a choppy month in the markets. Whether one looks at Bitcoin, equities, bonds, commodities, or currencies, the markets have essentially been in broad choppy ranges. This range-trading, however, masks the deeper stories beneath the surface. We have seen yet another mid-sized U.S. bank,