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In my August update, I outlined a broad macroeconomic forecast which, for the most part, I still like. First and foremost, I warned of a sharp spike higher in the 30-year US treasury interest rates. This is playing out pretty much as expected. Rates have shot up from 4.16%

The past few years have given us a fascinating lesson in just how wrong the “experts” can be when it comes to forecasting. The remarkable call from Jerome Powell that inflation in 2021 would be “transitory” was just one of many noteworthy misses. Last year, almost every Wall Street analyst

In my last write-up, on June 12, 2023, I cautioned my readers not to be fooled by the yen weakness that was dominating the foreign exchange market as the dollar would not be able to sustain a move above 143.00 yen per dollar. I was sure the yen weakness

The markets have shifted into a strange, almost eerie compression since my last write-up. Volatility levels in multiple markets continue to drop to multi-year lows. In my nearly forty years of trading experience, I've seen this as always a warning signal of violent fireworks to follow. This compression

The past month has overall been a choppy month in the markets. Whether one looks at Bitcoin, equities, bonds, commodities, or currencies, the markets have essentially been in broad choppy ranges. This range-trading, however, masks the deeper stories beneath the surface. We have seen yet another mid-sized U.S. bank,

A month ago, I told my readers that we were embarking on a period of significant U.S. dollar strength. Since then, the dollar has strengthened against all major currencies, with the dollar posting its largest gains against the Australian dollar (the “Aussie”). The Aussie has depreciated by over 5%

Today I am going to provide a brief update. In my last write-up, I pointed out the nearly overwhelming challenges facing the equity markets right now. The January jobs report reinforced my negative outlookon equities, as the Fed will have a brutal challenge to navigate a truly soft landing in